This page was originally published on 08.11.2022. We have updated the radar and related texts and graphics on 08.04.2025.
Making sense of the momentum in the global hydrogen economy
Climate change and serious geopolitical concerns have made the need to wean advanced economies off fossil fuels abundantly clear. In the process, both private-sector interests and public policymakers are increasingly discovering the potential of hydrogen to advance the transition to a climate-friendly economy. However, staying on top of such a fast-moving market is no easy task.
Roland Berger has advised clients for over a decade on countless projects surrounding clean
hydrogen.
Our expertise ranges from crafting political concepts for governments and industry associations to developing strategies for all relevant sectors of industry.
The Clean Hydrogen Radar places our in-depth understanding of this dynamic market at your disposal in a clear and concise form. Distilled into sharply focused analyses, the insights we are gaining will keep decision-makers in industry and government up to speed on the latest developments as the hydrogen economy continues to accelerate.
What is the Clean Hydrogen Radar?
Roland Berger believes it is important for market players and market makers to grasp the strategic implications and direction of the
hydrogen economy.
The radar therefore takes a deep dive into the latest technological and commercial developments as well as relevant regulatory trends. Drawing on our international networks of experts, we cover developments in global key markets, breaking our analysis down into different segments:
Hydrogen strategies and national targets Government strategies and ambitions towards hydrogen adoption
Regulatory developments Regulatory developments influencing the adoption of hydrogen and derivatives
Upstream market Developments surrounding the production and supply of hydrogen and its derivatives
Midstream market Developments in the
transportation
and storage of hydrogen
Downstream market News on hydrogen demand and the many use cases along three sectors: Industry (e.g., steel, refining, chemicals), Mobility (e.g., fuel cell trucks, sustainable aviation fuels), Energy (e.g., hydrogen fueled heat and power plants)
In the quarterly radar, our experts analyze these developments, interpreting current events and bringing the bigger market picture clearly into focus. Obviously, a brief high-level summary alone cannot share the full wealth of Roland Berger’s market intelligence in this fascinating field. However, the Clean Hydrogen Radar will lay a firm foundation for strategic discussion with clients, government policymakers and the public at large – a discussion we expressly welcome!
Clean Hydrogen Radar
Highlights from the Q1 2025 update
Q1 2025 was a dynamic quarter across the entire clean hydrogen sector, including further announcements of large-scale hydrogen projects and new international hydrogen policy and funding developments. However, despite such positive signs, negative signals for the market persisted. Key developments during Q1 include:
European Hydrogen Bank's EUR 1.2 bn second auction for renewable hydrogen production was 4x oversubscribed, receiving 61 bids from 11 countries. Together, bids represent 6.3 GW of electrolyzer capacity to produce 7.3 m tons of green hydrogen over ten years
US Treasury Department finalizes its rules for 45V clean hydrogen tax credit, including a 2030 phase-in for hourly matching. The Trump administration halts clean hydrogen funding under the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law through an executive order
Repsol scales back its green hydrogen investment plans, reducing its 2030 target from 1.9 GW to 0.7–1.2 GW due to market development delays and regulatory challenges
Air Products withdraws from two US clean hydrogen projects, citing stringent 45V requirements and commercial challenges
BASF commissions a 54 MW PEM electrolyzer at its Ludwigshafen site, making it the largest operational green hydrogen project in Europe
Morocco approves six green hydrogen projects with a combined investment value of USD 32.8 bn, aiming to produce green ammonia, green steel and e-fuels
Fluxys starts construction of the first phase of the hydrogen pipeline network in Belgium
TotalEnergies and RWE sign a 15-year green hydrogen offtake agreement to decarbonize refineries, covering 30,000 tons annually
No major announcements for new electrolyzer manufacturing capacity in last quarter; instead many OEMs enter restructuring programs in response to slow market uptake
Total announced green hydrogen production capacity, based on the latest project developments, may reach 560 GW by 2030. However, per Roland Berger’s assessment, which uses a probabilistic model considering project failure rates, expected cancellations and postponements, expects around 45-50 GW of installed electrolyzer capacity by 2030.
"Clean hydrogen is coming. It is an essential ingredient in the decarbonization agenda."
What does the future hold for the hydrogen economy?
Recent market developments and world events make it clear: Industry leaders and public policymakers need to keep a very close eye on how the clean hydrogen economy unfolds going forward. So stay tuned for our next update to the Clean Hydrogen Radar. But don’t just leave it at that: Reach out and engage with us in discussing what these developments mean for your strategy and your organization.
We look forward to hearing from you!
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