Evolve or be left behind – The future of consumer 
spending and retail

By Thorsten de Boer, Richard Federowski and Roger Claudius

Economic pressure and changing consumer preferences are reshaping global shopping behavior. Our latest Decoding consumer behavior study – the fourth in our series of investigations into international consumer behavior – presents insights from a major consumer survey conducted in partnership with Potloc in December 2024 and January 2025. A total of 3,000 people participated in the survey, 500 from each of the following six countries: Brazil, China, Germany, the United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and United States. The study highlights patterns observed in 2024 and forecasts for 2025 in light of the current global economic and geopolitical instability. Below, we discuss selected findings, including what the survey results tell us about consumer optimism, key consumer trends in 2025 and how retailers and brands can stay competitive in a rapidly evolving market. 

A varied picture

Overall consumer optimism is on the rise, with net positive sentiment at 28% in 2025 compared to 10% in 2024. However, the survey reveals strong differences between consumers in developed and developing countries: Broadly speaking, those in emerging economies are more confident, while those in developed markets are more cautious. This polarization is likely due to the different economic, social and political challenges that the various regions face. In the United Arab Emirates, for example, the survey participants have a highly positive outlook, with 79% feeling optimistic. Contrast this with Germany, where 52% of respondents say they are pessimistic, or the United Kingdom, where 42% say the same. Local factors appear to drive this positive or negative mood – from government campaigns promoting national pride, or falling interest rates, to proximity to conflict zones or overall economic decline.

Another key insight from the survey is that consumers prioritize value and trust. Indeed, two-thirds of consumers say price is their number one purchase criterion, while transparency and strong customer support remain critical for building trust. Behind this trend lie macroeconomic developments: Inflation has affected a large portion of the surveyed population, with 76% of respondents reporting a rise in the price of products and services in the second half of 2024. A majority of consumers also anticipate that product prices for essential goods – and hence their spending on them – will increase over the coming six months. As a result, consumer spending has become increasingly focused on the essentials rather than discretionary items. Value, rather than brand or status, is at the forefront of shoppers' minds.

New channels – and challenges for traditional players 

Another key finding of the survey is that 38% of consumers intend to explore online channels in the near future. Again, there is regional variation here: In China, the figure is as high as 82% and in the UAE 65%, while in Europe, consumers mainly plan to stick to their current behavior. Within this, there is particular interest in social commerce platforms such as TikTok Shop, which are especially popular with younger consumers. Already, 55% of respondents have made purchases on such platforms, which offer entertaining and highly engaging content in the form of videos and livestreams, and displayed personalized content based on the viewer's previous shopping and browsing behavior. The new platforms also compete on price: 47% of consumers are more satisfied with the value for money offered by them than by traditional online platforms. 

Increasingly, emerging social commerce platforms are direct competitors to traditional retailers. For consumer and retail businesses to remain relevant in 2025 and beyond, they will need to respond to this challenge. They can do this by offering content-driven shopping experiences and immersive formats such as live shopping, for instance. Investing in channel upgrades and evolving in this way will help established online platforms and others engage and convert consumers. At the same time, traditional retailers can exploit the fact that the new social commerce platforms perform less well in the areas of trust, customer support and quality control. 

The survey results allow us to make a number of further recommendations for strategic action by consumer and retail businesses, such as putting customer loyalty and engagement center-stage, balancing value and premium offerings, embedding sustainability in the value proposition, and continuously evolving so they stay relevant in a fast-changing consumer and competitive landscape. Overall, we encourage retailers and brands in all segments to evaluate and refine their offering in line with shifting consumer needs and market dynamics – not as a one-time effort, but on an ongoing basis. 

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