Navigating the implications of the Trump 2.0 presidency

By Stephan Keese, Zachary Kaplan and Stefan Lysak

The re-election of Donald Trump signals potential policy shifts that will reverberate across industries. From trade policy to energy strategy, regulatory reform, and subsidies, the next administration may bring opportunities and risks that demand decisive action. As management consultants, we understand the importance of anticipating and responding to change with agility. Here, we provide an executive-level analysis of the potential impacts and outline strategic recommendations to help businesses proactively position themselves in this evolving landscape.

Trade policy: Localizing for resilience


The Trump administration’s emphasis on trade independence is expected to intensify, with tariffs on Chinese imports potentially rising to 40% and stricter USMCA rules reshaping trade dynamics with Mexico and Canada. These shifts may disrupt supply chains and increase costs for manufacturers dependent on international components.

Strategic Takeaway: Companies should assess their supply chain exposure and pursue localization strategies to mitigate tariff risks. Investments in U.S.-based production capabilities will be critical for long-term resilience.

Energy strategy: Balancing conventional and renewable investments


While U.S. state-level policies will continue to drive renewable energy adoption, a Trump presidency may bring renewed support for fossil fuels, deregulation of emissions standards, and expanded drilling initiatives. This could result in a net-neutral or mixed energy policy environment, with implications for long-term capital allocation.

Strategic Takeaway: Businesses should diversify their energy strategies, leveraging near-term opportunities in fossil fuels while preparing for continued growth in renewables, particularly in state-driven markets like energy storage and geothermal.

Regulatory and subsidy shifts: Opportunities amid uncertainty


Potential rollbacks of EV and clean energy subsidies and relaxed antitrust enforcement may reshape the competitive landscape. Technology, energy, and manufacturing sectors could see an uptick in M&A activity, while companies reliant on subsidies must reassess their financial models.

Strategic Takeaway: Leaders should monitor regulatory changes closely and identify opportunities to strengthen market positions through partnerships, acquisitions, or resource reallocation.

Action plan: Proactive strategies for business leaders

1. Scenario planning: Develop dynamic models to anticipate impacts under varying degrees of policy reform. Risk factors include tariff increases, regulatory rollbacks, and subsidy reductions.
2. Policy engagement: Establish a strong advocacy framework to influence policy outcomes and align business objectives with regulatory priorities.
3. Operational agility: Optimize supply chains and expand domestic production capabilities to mitigate geopolitical risks.
4. Market adaptation: Identify and invest in growth areas where state policies and market trends align, such as renewables or advanced technologies.

Conclusion


The Trump 2.0 administration underscores the necessity of preparing for uncertainty. Successful leaders will approach this environment with a proactive mindset, leveraging scenario planning, operational adjustments, and strategic advocacy to navigate change effectively.

At Roland Berger, we specialize in guiding organizations through complex challenges and helping them capitalize on emerging opportunities. Please contact us to explore how we can help your business adapt to this transformative period.

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