The truck and trailer market will be driven by four mega-trends over the next decade: new logistics, autonomous driving, digitalization and electrification/alternative drives. Some key developments in each area:

Logistics: Further growth of large fleets is expected, as the transport industry continues to head towards a digital platform ecosystem, creating new players in services.

Autonomous driving: While driverless trucks will create significant operating cost savings in the long-run, they won't become reality anytime soon, and only few applications with a high share of truck platooning in early stages will deliver fast payback.

Digitalization: The evolution of digital technologies will create new use cases, for example in advanced truck and trailer telematics. AI-based optimization will drive down congestion, low utilization and costs.

Electrification: Regulation and low-emission policies will drive electrification. While OEMs face high investments in new vehicle architectures, suppliers may benefit from new opportunities, such as electric axles.

Growth within the sector is deemed to be rather diverse: E.g. while the European production of medium- to heavy-duty trucks and buses is expected to expand by 1.3% p.a. until 2020, growth in the trailer segment will likely remain flat. Meanwhile, the related component systems are expected to outperform in value growth. For Europe it means an average annual growth from 2016 to 2022 of 3.5-4% for braking systems, 7-8% for powertrains, 9-10% for steering systems and 10-12% for ADAS.

The largest share of value in tractor trucks will remain with powertrain and cabin, however connectivity solutions and driver assistance systems are expected to gain importance – the demand for ADAS (particularly LDWS, ACC, AEBS) is expected to further increase.